Jacob Coker: Physically Gifted But Still Developing

Quarterback Jacob Coker's transfer from Florida State to Alabama was one of the big stories of this college football offseason. FSU QB coach Randy Sanders said Coker was "probably the best I've seen in 25 years at throwing it" — even better than Heisman winner Jameis Winston. "I've never had anybody with his size who throws it as well as he does." After seeing those comments, I had to take a look.

I don't want to rehash what's already been written. Coker's got prototypical size (6'5" and 230 pounds). He's got good arm strength and nice touch. Finally, he's a pretty good athlete. He's got decent straight-line speed, is fairly elusive in small spaces and can throw on the move.

At times Coker looks a little like Winston, but he isn't yet a complete quarterback. There's plenty of room for improvement in his accuracy and decision-making.

Inconsistent Accuracy

Coker's accuracy is difficult to evaluate because of the small sample size but also because many of his passes were in the three-step game. However, in the spring game he was repeatedly off the mark on his short throws. 

There were a couple of slants thrown too high or behind receivers. There was also a drag route thrown high and inside that resulted in an interception. 

A good read on this play in the spring game is negated by an overthrow. Coker's footwork is stiff in the pocket and he doesn't fully step into the throw.

I can't totally blame Coker for this throw on the hitch-n-go because the route is horrible — the receiver overemphasizes the hitch and disrupts the timing. Still, this is not a difficult throw. Again Coker doesn't step into the throw.

Coker threw a couple of deeper balls down the sideline in the spring game. This deep curl stood out because, although it was complete, it was put too far inside. The cornerback slipped on the cut and wasn't able to make a play on the ball, but that's not where you want that throw to go because...

A couple of plays later Coker tried to throw a backshoulder fade and the ball was again too far inside and should have been picked off.

The spring game isn't an ideal setting for analyzing a player, but because Coker saw all of his regular-season action in garbage time, the vast majority of those throws were in the quick game — and thus not very informative.

That said, Coker's accuracy in the regular season was better but still lacking. There was a bubble screen thrown at a receiver's ankles and a drag thrown behind his target. This is a simple quick-in route in Levels (a high-low concept), but Coker doesn't step into the throw, causing it to sail high, through the receiver's grip and into the hands of an NC State safety. 

Still, Coker flashed good accuracy. For instance, there's the Winstonesque play in the first gif. There was also a really well-thrown ball on a deep wheel route against NC State while Coker was rolling to his right. That pass fell incomplete but it was off by only inches. From what I can tell, Coker's inconsistent accuracy stems from his footwork breaking down when the pocket is closing in; it should be fixable. 

Decision-Making

I like a lot of what I see from Coker as a decision-maker. He consistently recognized man or loose coverage and was able to exploit favorable matchups on the outside (there are tons of examples of Coker throwing hitches and quick-outs). The only problem is that he needs to make those decisions quicker.

Coker makes the correct read on this play but he makes it too slowly. The offense is running a horizontal stretch on the linebacker, forcing him to pick either the slot's drag route or the fullback's flat route. By the time Coker decides which receiver to target (and because of a coverage breakdown he could have thrown to either), the blitzer off the edge is in his face and likely would have disrupted or prevented the throw in live action.

Here's another example of hesitation, this time in an actual game (NC State). Coker steps into the pocket like a veteran on this play but he held onto the ball too long and seemed to have locked on to one receiver. He has an obvious checkdown on the drag route; the ball should have been dumped off before that receiver had to spin around.

This was an encouraging play until the end. There's nothing particularly notable about the pre-snap alignment from the defense except that one of the linebackers is showing blitz. However, the field safety makes a subtle move late, coming up from his deep position and sliding over the top of the slot. This alerted Coker that the nickelback likely would not be covering the slot and thus was probably coming on a blitz.

Based on his footwork and the fact that he rushed the throw, I think Coker did recognize pressure. But I think he chose the wrong route. He wanted to target the tight end, who was in a favorable matchup vs. a defensive end, but he was running a slow-developing corner route and had a safety over the top covering the deep half of the field. Meanwhile, the slot receiver on the other side of the field was running a quick-out with a large cushion. Under pressure, Coker lofted the ball in the tight end's general direction before the receiver had even made his cut, and the ball fell incomplete.

So that play was almost a success. Let's look at some more encouraging plays.

On the stat sheet, this play — an incompletion — is a failure. In reality, it's an example of ball security (game manager, anyone?). From the pre-snap read it appears that Maryland is in Cover 3 (three deep and four underneath zone defenders). Coker wants to exploit the boundary-side flat with the out route. But notice how quickly the boundary-side outside linebacker gets into his drop and gets his head around. Coker cocks his arm back but sees the defender in the way and holds onto the ball. If he had tried to throw the out route, it probably would have resulted in a pick-six. Knowing he’s got no other immediate outlet since both backs initially stayed in for protection, he smartly throws it away. (I can't tell what the two receivers on the bottom were running but they look like slower developing routes.)

This is a more obvious success. The defense is playing Cover 4 to the field side, meaning the safety is taking the slot receiver since he threatens the defense vertically. That leaves the cornerback on an island against the outside receiver, 6'5" Kelvin Benjamin. A smart QB will see that and take his shot — and that's exactly what Coker does. Give your big man a chance to be a playmaker.

Flashes of Brilliance

Coker has physical talent in spades but still needs to clean up his game if he's going to win the starting job in Tuscaloosa. It starts with keeping his footwork tidy when the pressure is getting to him. Add quicker decision-making and Coker will be a formidable weapon at quarterback.

"Keys to the Game" for FSU's Run Defense

I wanted to get beneath the superficial analysis of what Florida State's defense will have to do in order to slow down Auburn's rushing attack. Saying they'll need to tackle in space or be disciplined isn't informative.

Set the Edge

In my mind, this is the most important task for the Seminoles. Auburn will test the edges of the FSU defense more than probably any team since Clemson. It will be especially critical for FSU's cornerbacks and sometimes safeties to force ballcarriers back inside to the pursuit. The film gives Seminole fans cause for optimism.

On this jet sweep against Boston College — a play FSU will see plenty of vs. Auburn — safety Terrence Brooks (#31) has run force responsibilities. He does a great job using his hands to keep the lead blocker from cutting him (another thing he'll have to do against Auburn) and maintains his balance. If we're being critical, Brooks almost lost outside leverage on this play but was able to use his speed and the sideline.

When running outside, most teams went after sophomore cornerback P.J. Williams (#26; on the bottom). This isn't a great play from him, but he does the most important part — maintains outside leverage. Like the Seminoles' previous opponents, the Tigers will likely try to run at him, too, but I didn't see anything to suggest he can be consistently flanked (which did happen in the Alabama-Auburn game).

It's not really something Auburn does, but Florida State's DBs are even willing to take on offensive linemen to maintain contain.

Another example. The corner at the top actually blows up the blocker here.

Although still contain, this is a little different but interesting. Maryland is running outside zone read on this play — the quarterback is reading the circled defender and will either hand off on a sweep or keep it himself up the middle based on how the defender reacts. This is a play Auburn will run against FSU. Most defenses coach their defensive ends to stay close to the line of scrimmage and shuffle inside with their shoulders square (giving the QB a "give" read), but FSU's ends usually came upfield and angled toward the ball. This muddles the QB's read, but usually he'll keep the ball. Because he's facing inside, the end is often able to make the tackle himself (and he did on this play).

Split the Combo Blocks or Hold Your Ground

Auburn is a zone blocking team, so their inside run game features a lot of combo blocks — two offensive linemen will double team a defender, usually a defensive tackle, before one blocker peels off to block a second-level defender. The Tigers, especially the left side of the line, are really good at this.

As a defender facing a combo block, you're taught to turn your shoulders and split the double team if you can. If successful, this not only enables you to make the tackle, but it also prevents (or delays) the second blocker from peeling off, meaning your linebacker is unblocked.

If you can't split the combo block, you're taught to hold your ground and occupy the blockers as best you can, even if that means grabbing their jerseys, dropping to the ground and pulling them down with you (technically a penalty but it's never called). This keeps the second blocker from getting to his next assignment. It also creates a pile, which is just one more obstacle for the ballcarrier.

I didn't see any of Florida State's defensive linemen get consistently dominated by combo blocks this season, but I wasn't really blown away either. I got the impression that they're better at shedding the blocks than anchoring — something that may not do them much good against a unit as good at combo blocking as the Tigers.

The Boston College Argument

One misconception that should be put to bed right away is that Boston College showed that you can run on FSU. BC's offense is dramatically different from Auburn's, and unless Gus Malzahn decides to start using heavy personnel and abandon his zone blocking plays, the results of the BC game have no bearing on this one. The Tigers may have success on the ground, but it won't be because they learned anything from what BC did.

I don't expect Auburn to have much success outside the tackles, but they'll probably find some big plays inside. Given the Seminole D-line's propensity to shed blocks, there will also be some negative plays. I don't expect a slow grinding run attack from Auburn — it'll be more like 9-yard gains followed by 2-yard losses. I also think we'll see Nick Marshall attempt more passes than he has in recent games — probably 25+ — partly to keep pace with the Seminoles but also by design.