In Defense of Baylor's Defense

I rewatched the Oklahoma State-Baylor game expecting to see Baylor get "exposed." I don't think that's what happened, though there were personnel issues. Instead, I think the biggest factor that enabled OSU to average 8.1 yards per play (2.5 yards more than any other team and nearly three times the season average) was preparation. 

Injuries

You can't properly evaluate the Bears' defensive performance without acknowledging the loss of starting middle linebacker Bryce Hager, who left last week's game against Texas Tech with a groin injury. Because of the injury, Baylor had to move their regular nickelback, Sam Holl, to inside linebacker; safety Ahmad Dixon was moved to nickel; and a redshirt freshman came in at safety. Holl is a good player but he really struggled in his run fits.

Holl is the linebacker on the bottom here, and he goes over the top of the center's block instead of staying in the playside A gap where he needed to be. 

Same mistake here — Holl is the linebacker standing on the hash marks. Notice where the ballcarrier goes after Holl commits. Had he stayed in his gap, the back would have been forced to run into the other linebacker's pursuit.

Linebackers have to be especially aggressive when taking on blocks near the goal line. Compare the play of Holl (circled) to that of linebacker Eddie Lackey, who is standing to Holl's right.

Whereas Lackey is attacking, Holl takes on the block a foot into the end zone. Still, it's hard to blame Holl too much because inside linebacker isn't his regular position.

Another player who had his hands full was senior corner Demetri Goodson.

Watch Goodson's feet. That belongs in a clinic video on how not to play press coverage. He doesn't stay square, doesn't get a good punch and immediately "opens the gate" (takes a step back and turns his hips, which enables the receiver to run by him). He was burned one or two more times but none was as bad as this. In fairness, OSU's #87, Tracy Moore (6-2, 215), is a very underrated player, in my opinion.

I should also note that OSU fullback Kye Staley went into the Baylor game with two career carries — one in 2011 and another a week ago against Texas. Against Baylor, he carried the ball seven times for two scores. I'm not sure what OSU saw that told them to get the ball to Staley — I would guess they saw some advantage in his size (236 lbs.). 

Manipulating the Defense with Motion

I also saw two ways that OK State attacked Baylor's D with various types of motion.

On this touchdown pass in the second quarter, OSU came out in a trips set to the left but motioned the No. 2 receiver across the formation. Baylor checks to man coverage on the bottom and uses a Quarters-type coverage on top. The nickelback jams the inside receiver and takes him man to man. The corner and safety are basically bracketing the routes — the corner will take anything outside and the safety will take anything inside. The problem is in the way No. 1 runs his route: He starts it like a shallow cross but then drifts downfield. This complicates the safety's read. Most teams have their safeties pass off shallow crossing routes to the linebackers in this coverage (they're blitzing here and a defensive tackle drops into the inside underneath zone). The safety is slow to recognize that No. 1 is actually running his route deep and can't get over in time. (Thanks to Reddit user grizzfan for helping break down this play.)

Here's a slightly different look that OSU also found success with. From a 2x2, one-back set, they put a slot receiver in jet motion. Needing to be able to account for the jet sweep, Baylor responded by rushing the nickel off the edge (on the side that the receiver was motioning toward; you can see him walk toward the line when the motion starts) to match the motioning slot while checking to Man Free coverage (man coverage with a single deep safety). With the nickel committed to the motion man, OSU now had the other slot receiver matched up on a safety.

This particular play didn't work, but you can see that the deep safety (#28) wasn't in great position (the receiver shouldn't be behind him) and really broke the pass up more by accident than skill.

On this play — same formation and motion — OSU's slot receiver on the bottom crack blocked the nickel (who, again, is rushing to counter the jet motion). The safety to the play side does a good job forcing the ballcarrier inside, but the running back is able to get in front and cut the pursuing linebacker.

Going into this game, I thought OSU quarterback Clint Chelf was the second-best quarterback in the Big 12 behind Baylor's Bryce Petty. He made a convincing case that he should be #1. But I was surprised at how good OSU's receivers were all night. With TCU and Texas left on its schedule, Baylor won't face another combination of great quarterback and wide receiver play until its bowl game at the earliest. I expect Baylor's defense to rebound, particularly once Hager is back in the lineup.

Mortal After All: How Oklahoma State Stopped Baylor's Offense

There are two major defensive philosophies when it comes to playing Baylor. One is the bend-but-don't-break approach that was employed by Kansas State earlier this year. K-State was content to play two deep safeties with lots of Quarters and Palms coverage and rarely — if ever — blitzed. 

The Wildcats wanted to frustrate the up-tempo Bears' offense, forcing it to sustain slow and methodical drives. This was coupled with a strong run game — KSU average 5.6 yards per rush, a yard and a half more than any other team has averaged on the ground against Baylor. Baylor trailed 25-21 going into the fourth quarter and was held to 7.6 yards per play, its second-lowest average going into Saturday's game.

The second approach is to attack. Oklahoma showed a lot of two-deep shells but brought a safety into the box just before the snap, played a lot of Cover 3 and Man Free and blitzed frequently — even bringing some slow-developing safety blitzes.

Against OU, Baylor was kept out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter, quarterback Bryce Petty looked flustered early and the offense was held to only 5.7 yards per play — a figure that was bested only by Oklahoma State (5.6).

I expected — and based on the way the game went, I think Baylor expected — OK State, a Quarters-based defense, to employ the KSU strategy. Instead, OSU came after Baylor's offense from start to finish. OSU didn't blitz all that much, and they frequently dropped a lineman when they did. 

However, as you can see, they played a good deal of press coverage or simply tight man coverage with their corners. This took away the quick throws to the outside receivers. Then they used the alignment of linebackers to take away the quick inside-breaking routes to slot receivers. What was left for Baylor was contested throws into tight windows or low-percentage throws downfield, and OSU's secondary was excellent in coverage all night.

Baylor also killed themselves with mistakes. Their third-string running back, redshirt freshman Shock Linwood, lost two fumbles — one at the goal line and another at midfield. Petty was off target most of the night and never looked comfortable.

The above play might have gone for a touchdown, but the receiver had to go low to make the catch and lost his footing.

They also suffered from blown blocking assignments in critical moments. On their first drive of the second half, down 21-3, the Bears went for it on 4th & 4. They ran lead option to the boundary. It wasn't a bad call — the Cowboys came out in Cover 1 and Baylor had leverage to the outside.

The problem was in the execution. Two players, the right tackle and the H-back, had opportunities to seal the Will linebacker, Ryan Simmons, and both failed. He was able to stretch out the play and give the deep safety and Mike linebacker time to get over in pursuit.

There were other opportunities for Baylor that they just missed. Leading 14-0 late in the first half, OSU left a slot receiver to the field side nearly uncovered on 3rd & 10. 

Petty didn't notice; he looked to the boundary side, where two defenders dropped into coverage from the blitz front, and was sacked. I don't want to give OSU defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer too much credit, but his defense frequently seemed to know where Baylor was going to be looking to throw the ball, and Petty looked lost when his first read wasn't open.

In addition, OSU played most of the game with its 4-3 personnel, even when Baylor came out in four-wide or empty sets. Simmons and Shaun Lewis are good, athletic linebackers, but they shouldn't be able to cover wide receivers in the open field. 

Against trips, OSU has its corner lock up on the No. 1 receiver then plays a pattern-matching scheme with its Sam linebacker (Lewis), its Mike linebacker and the strong safety. You can see the cushion that Lewis gives the No. 2 receiver against these sets. There's no reason Baylor couldn't have No. 1 run a go route to clear out the corner and then throw a quick-out to No. 2, who would have at least a few yards of space to make a move on Lewis. The play above is another example of how Baylor could have attacked OSU. This is just a variation of Bullets (skinny post/wheel), with No. 1 running a skinny post and No. 2 running a wheel-stop. For whatever reason, Baylor rarely used trips sets and preferred to use quick-hitting, one-read pick concepts that weren't working instead of frequently targeting OSU's backers in space.

Ultimately, Baylor's offense wasn't prepared for what OSU threw at them and was unable to make the proper adjustments. In light of Petty's struggles, OSU quarterback Clint Chelf's ability to go through a progression really stood out. However, it wouldn't be accurate to say Spencer's unit created the template for stopping Briles' offense. For one, KSU showed that there is another way. Moreover, you have to keep in mind that Baylor was missing their two best running backs, one of their best receivers and a tackle. Finally, you can't consider OSU's strategy as a template without noting that it was OSU's tremendous play in the secondary that made the whole thing tick.