How Good Is Jameis Winston?

It's common for fans to get exhausted by the media's over-coverage of a player and begin to take it out on that player. It becomes popular to deem the player "overrated." It's happened with Tebow, Manziel and Bridgewater in recent years. After watching him in every single snap this season, I can say that it shouldn't happen with Jameis Winston.

Note that the images and gifs below are intended to demonstrate the qualities or tendencies I'm discussing, not to prove that Winston possesses those things. In other words, I can't post every single example of Winston being accurate and inaccurate to prove his accuracy, but I tried to share some of the most impressive examples. 

Strengths

Size. Winston has prototypical size: 6'4" and 228 pounds.

Arm strength. By now you should have seen the videos of him throwing baserunners out from rightfield, clocking 96 mph fastballs and tossing footballs over the Pike House. I'd rate his arm strength a 9/10 — it's not the strongest I've seen, but there is not a single throw he can't make.

Watch the cornerback on this play: He breaks on the throw immediately but has no chance. Throwing behind the squat cornerback in Cover 2/Tampa 2 is among the more difficult things to do as a quarterback, but Winston makes it look easy. It doesn't matter if you’re playing on Saturday or Sunday (or Thursday or Monday) — the corner isn't going to break up a pass that has this much velocity.

There are enough examples of Winston's arm strength in the rest of my analysis that I won't waste any more space discussing it — except to share this gif.

Throwing this ball is a terrible decision, but effortlessly throwing a ball 35 yards while falling down is impressive.

Accuracy and ball placement. When you complete 67.9% of your passes in an offense that doesn't feature many screens and quick throws (ahem, air raid QBs), you're an accurate passer. But to be elite, throwing a catchable pass isn't enough; you also have to be able to recognize where the ball needs to be based on the defender's leverage and get it there. That's ball placement.

Here's a simple example of good ball placement. Targeting the seam route, Winston throws behind the receiver to avoid the linebacker in the middle. Winston's awareness of ball placement is clear in nearly every throw he makes. Here are a few more examples of his incredible accuracy.

Winston avoids the pass rush, keeps his eyes downfield and puts this ball where only his guy can catch it in double coverage.

Here's a great demonstration of arm strength and accuracy. This ball was thrown from the 25-yard line while Winston was rolling to his left. The receiver doesn't even break stride.

This is an NFL throw. The defense runs a fire zone blitz (three deep and three underneath coverage). Winston sees the safety, the deep middle 1/3 defender, vacate his zone to chase the slot and hits the outside receiver on the post. This ball is perfectly placed. Notice also how quickly Winston makes the decision to throw when the safety turns his hips — that awareness fits into the football IQ category.

Football IQ. This is more difficult to demonstrate, but it becomes clear watching a quarterback before the snap and seeing how often he looks confused immediately after the snap. I could count on one hand how many times I saw Winston look surprised by a defense after the snap.

I went ahead and labeled this coverage, but it's not easy to diagnose pre-snap. It could be Cover 6 (also known as Quarter-Quarter-Half, it's Cover 2 to the boundary, Quarters to the field); Cover 0 corner blitz (man with no deep safety), with the boundary safety creeping over to cover the single-side receiver so that the boundary corner can blitz; or even Cover 3 (three deep, four under), with the boundary corner bailing to the deep 1/3 at the snap.

Winston recognizes Man Free (man coverage with one deep safety), watches the safety and throws away from him. The short route by the outside receiver keeps the cornerback low, clearing space for the slot receiver to work behind him.

Winston doesn't do much after that except deliver a perfect ball.

I will say that there's room for Winston to improve his deep accuracy — though it's still outstanding — and he occasionally overthrows intermediate routes, which can lead to interceptions when you're throwing over the middle.

Pocket presence. Winston is excellent against outside pressure and good against inside pressure. He has no qualms about taking a hit to deliver a pass, is very comfortable stepping into a pass rush and knows when to scramble.

Despite his size, he frequently eludes the rush; when he can't, he's strong enough to fight through tackles. And the best part is that he keeps his eyes downfield.

Mobility. Winston is a capable runner but not a deadly one. He's not particularly fast (his 40 time is listed as low as sub-4.6, but he looks like a 4.65 to me); he'd rather throw than run; and he isn't going to break off a long run like Marcus Mariota (his longest run this season is 20 yards).

Weaknesses

My list of weaknesses for Winston demonstrate just how difficult it is to find flaws in his game.

I wouldn't consider it a huge weakness, but as far as mechanics his delivery isn't as compact as it could be — he tends to drop the ball when he starts his motion.

There are also a few instances where his footwork broke down. For example, sometimes he adds an unnecessary bounce at the end of his drop. Neither of these things should concern pro scouts.

Ball handling and security. Winston's play fakes aren't good, but that's not a big deal. More concerning is that he's lax with the ball when he starts scrambling.

Even when he tucks the ball to run, he tends to hold it loosely. He usually gets away with it in college because he's so strong, but it's something he needs to clean up.

Doesn't check down or throw the ball away. This is the real weakness in Winston's game right now. There are half a dozen examples in every game.

A toss to the running back at the top would have been an easy first down, and even throwing to the shallow crossing route would have yielded better results. Instead, Winston invariably tries to extend the play when he feels pressure.

On these bootlegs, you're supposed to throw the flat route if you feel pressure early. 

I think I saw maybe three plays in the entire season where Winston threw the ball away. There's no good reason for this not to have been the fourth.

On this play vs. a fire zone, Winston throws the post.

That wouldn't be a terrible decision except that his running back is uncovered in the flat.

Winston's greatest weakness right now is that he's too aggressive and tries to do too much, and his greatest strength is everything else. He is a very exciting prospect who could start on some NFL rosters right now. Once he learns to take what the defense gives him instead of trying to turn everything into a big play, he'll be a monster.

Rolled Tide: Auburn's Success in the Run Game

Auburn finished the Iron Bowl with 296 rushing yards, averaging 5.7 yards per rush. The last time a team had that many yards on the ground against Saban's defense, the U.S. still had troops in Iraq and Whitney Houston was alive. (I don't know if this will help Florida fans cope, but that team was Georgia Southern.) I wanted to find out how Auburn did it.

Confusion

Auburn's offense is not complicated. I think I counted six different run plays in the Iron Bowl, and the vast majority were inside zone read with various tags added on (such as bubble screens). What makes Auburn's attack so difficult to defend is (1) the tempo and (2) the untraditional formations and frequent motions. When a defense is tired and having to adjust to motion, it's easy for a player to blow an assignment. Alabama is one of the more disciplined teams in the country, but even they were not immune.

On this play, one the the H-backs motions across the formation. After a moment, Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosley runs up to the line and appears to be trying to get the defensive line to shift. He's out of position at the snap. Meanwhile, #20 Jarrick Williams, who plays the "star" position in Saban's defense (basically a nickelback), doesn't move over to mirror the shift until it's too late. He is easily sealed inside by the same player who went in motion, which enables Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall to get around the edge. This would be a frequent problem for the Tide, but I'll get to that.

That example was rather harmless, especially since the play was called back for holding. The next example went 45 yards for Auburn's first touchdown.

The Tigers motion a receiver across the formation in a jet sweep look but run inside zone read with the back, a play they would run frequently. I don't know exactly what the responsibilities were here, but I do know that two Bama players — #42 Adrian Hubbard and #26 Landon Collins — both responded to the jet motion. That's a problem.

With Hubbard chasing the motion man upfield and Collins running up to cut the motion man off, there's a huge lane for Marshall. During the broadcast, Gary Danielson also pointed out Mosley (#32), the linebacker in the middle who shuffles himself out of the play. This defensive front wasn't the one Alabama used most of the day, and this is the only time Auburn ran this play against this front, so I'm not sure how it should have played out. However, I suspect Collins was responsible for the sweeper (that's how most teams do it). In that case, Hubbard needed to respond to the left tackle's down block by shuffling inside, which would have constricted the gap that Marshall ran through. This would have forced Marshall to cut inside where Mosley could make the play*.

* I should say where Mosley could make the play were it not for the fact that defensive end Jeoffrey Pagan got driven five yards back. This was another common theme I'll get to later.

Contain

Alabama's sophomore cornerback Cyrus Jones had a rough night. Auburn ran at him a lot, and Marshall threw the game-tying touchdown pass over his head off one of those inside zone read plays that had the X receiver running a sort of casual fade as a third option. (I was surprised to see that the Tigers actually ran this play a couple of times earlier in the game. It wasn't some gadget they unveiled at the last moment.)

Most notably, Jones struggled with his responsibilities as a run force player; it was frequently his job to "set the edge" on outside runs to his side in order to force the ballcarrier back inside to pursuing defenders. Here is senior corner Deion Belue (#13) showing what setting the edge is supposed to look like (attack the block, keep your outside arm free and stay on your feet):

I don't want to be too harsh on Jones, so I'll only add one gif.

Jones is the cornerback on top, wearing the #5 jersey. He is late attacking the block and doesn't keep leverage to the outside. I counted three more plays in which Jones failed to set the edge; those four plays resulted in 56 rushing yards for the Tigers. To be fair, Jones was not the only player who had trouble on the outside — Williams (mentioned earlier when he was slow to respond to motion) lost contain at least once, and most of the defensive backs missed at least one tackle on the outside at some point. 

The Trenches

Finally, it would be a disservice to paint Auburn's offense as "finesse." The Tigers' offensive line, particularly sophomore left tackle Greg Robinson (#73) and redshirt freshman left guard Alex Kozan (#63), were often dominant.

Alabama's Pagan, who was mentioned earlier, had an especially tough time early in the game. (He got better as the game progressed.) Notice where the line of scrimmage is in the image above.

A few seconds into the play, Robinson and Kozan have driven Pagan nearly three yards back and into the pursuit path of Mosley. 

Here's another example. 

After the snap, Robinson and Kozan have walked Pagan another three yards off the line and into a linebacker. Combo blocks are very difficult for any player, but ideally Pagan would fight the blockers to a stalemate or, if he can't, drop to the ground, taking them down with him and creating a pile. This not only creates an obstruction for the ballcarrier, but it also prevents the combo blockers from reaching the second defender they're trying to get to, usually a linebacker.

I want to be fair to Pagan, so here's a picture of freshman A'Shawn Robinson also being dominated by the combo block of Robinson and Kozan. (He was actually pancaked a split second after this.)

Late in the game, Alabama began using more 3-4 fronts, stunts and corner blitzes. The defensive line play improved, and they even threw in some trap coverages to try to bait Marshall into throwing an interception. These efforts were relatively successful; Auburn was held to 64 rushing yards on 15 attempts in the fourth quarter and 4.67 yards per play. But it was too little too late.