In Defense of Baylor's Defense

I rewatched the Oklahoma State-Baylor game expecting to see Baylor get "exposed." I don't think that's what happened, though there were personnel issues. Instead, I think the biggest factor that enabled OSU to average 8.1 yards per play (2.5 yards more than any other team and nearly three times the season average) was preparation. 

Injuries

You can't properly evaluate the Bears' defensive performance without acknowledging the loss of starting middle linebacker Bryce Hager, who left last week's game against Texas Tech with a groin injury. Because of the injury, Baylor had to move their regular nickelback, Sam Holl, to inside linebacker; safety Ahmad Dixon was moved to nickel; and a redshirt freshman came in at safety. Holl is a good player but he really struggled in his run fits.

Holl is the linebacker on the bottom here, and he goes over the top of the center's block instead of staying in the playside A gap where he needed to be. 

Same mistake here — Holl is the linebacker standing on the hash marks. Notice where the ballcarrier goes after Holl commits. Had he stayed in his gap, the back would have been forced to run into the other linebacker's pursuit.

Linebackers have to be especially aggressive when taking on blocks near the goal line. Compare the play of Holl (circled) to that of linebacker Eddie Lackey, who is standing to Holl's right.

Whereas Lackey is attacking, Holl takes on the block a foot into the end zone. Still, it's hard to blame Holl too much because inside linebacker isn't his regular position.

Another player who had his hands full was senior corner Demetri Goodson.

Watch Goodson's feet. That belongs in a clinic video on how not to play press coverage. He doesn't stay square, doesn't get a good punch and immediately "opens the gate" (takes a step back and turns his hips, which enables the receiver to run by him). He was burned one or two more times but none was as bad as this. In fairness, OSU's #87, Tracy Moore (6-2, 215), is a very underrated player, in my opinion.

I should also note that OSU fullback Kye Staley went into the Baylor game with two career carries — one in 2011 and another a week ago against Texas. Against Baylor, he carried the ball seven times for two scores. I'm not sure what OSU saw that told them to get the ball to Staley — I would guess they saw some advantage in his size (236 lbs.). 

Manipulating the Defense with Motion

I also saw two ways that OK State attacked Baylor's D with various types of motion.

On this touchdown pass in the second quarter, OSU came out in a trips set to the left but motioned the No. 2 receiver across the formation. Baylor checks to man coverage on the bottom and uses a Quarters-type coverage on top. The nickelback jams the inside receiver and takes him man to man. The corner and safety are basically bracketing the routes — the corner will take anything outside and the safety will take anything inside. The problem is in the way No. 1 runs his route: He starts it like a shallow cross but then drifts downfield. This complicates the safety's read. Most teams have their safeties pass off shallow crossing routes to the linebackers in this coverage (they're blitzing here and a defensive tackle drops into the inside underneath zone). The safety is slow to recognize that No. 1 is actually running his route deep and can't get over in time. (Thanks to Reddit user grizzfan for helping break down this play.)

Here's a slightly different look that OSU also found success with. From a 2x2, one-back set, they put a slot receiver in jet motion. Needing to be able to account for the jet sweep, Baylor responded by rushing the nickel off the edge (on the side that the receiver was motioning toward; you can see him walk toward the line when the motion starts) to match the motioning slot while checking to Man Free coverage (man coverage with a single deep safety). With the nickel committed to the motion man, OSU now had the other slot receiver matched up on a safety.

This particular play didn't work, but you can see that the deep safety (#28) wasn't in great position (the receiver shouldn't be behind him) and really broke the pass up more by accident than skill.

On this play — same formation and motion — OSU's slot receiver on the bottom crack blocked the nickel (who, again, is rushing to counter the jet motion). The safety to the play side does a good job forcing the ballcarrier inside, but the running back is able to get in front and cut the pursuing linebacker.

Going into this game, I thought OSU quarterback Clint Chelf was the second-best quarterback in the Big 12 behind Baylor's Bryce Petty. He made a convincing case that he should be #1. But I was surprised at how good OSU's receivers were all night. With TCU and Texas left on its schedule, Baylor won't face another combination of great quarterback and wide receiver play until its bowl game at the earliest. I expect Baylor's defense to rebound, particularly once Hager is back in the lineup.